From Bean to Bar: Mapping the Global Cocoa Supply Chain with AI

Introduction

Chocolate is more than just a sweet treat — it’s the result of a complex global supply chain that connects farmers, traders, manufacturers, and consumers. For companies in this space, understanding where the best cocoa beans come from, how consumer tastes evolve, and where new opportunities lie can shape both product development and market strategy.

To explore this, we have used Terno AI to analyze the Flavors of Cacao dataset. The goal was simple: to map the global cocoa supply chain and highlight opportunities for chocolate companies, retailers, and even investors.[See the full Terno AI conversation here]

Prompt: Give me a summary of the dataset — what are the columns, data types, and missing values?

Where Do the Best Cocoa Beans Come From?

One of the first questions for any chocolate maker is: where should we source beans from to maximize quality and ratings?

Terno AI helped create a world map showing top-rated cocoa bean origins and the companies sourcing them. This visualization highlights the regions that dominate the premium chocolate market.

Prompt: Create a world map of where the best cocoa beans come from and who is sourcing them.

How Tastes Have Changed Over Time

Consumer preferences are never static. Ratings over time reveal whether chocolates are improving and how certain regions are becoming more consistent in quality.

Here’s what Terno AI mapped out:

• Rating trends over the years→ showing if global chocolate quality is rising.
• Variance in ratings by region→ highlighting which countries have stabilized in producing high-quality chocolate.

Prompt: Plot trends of chocolate ratings over the years.

Prompt: Plot the variance in ratings over time by region — are some countries becoming more consistent?

Emerging Cocoa Origins

Beyond the traditional cocoa giants, new origins are entering the market with impressive ratings. These newcomers represent both a threat to established regions and an opportunity for forward-looking companies.

Key insight:

• Newly entered origins with strong ratings.
• Underutilized bean origins that show potential but aren’t widely tapped yet.

Prompt: Which new bean origins have recently entered the market with good ratings?

Prompt: Which bean origins are underutilized but have potential for high ratings?

Mapping the Cocoa Trade Network

Chocolate is a global product: beans may be grown in South America, shipped to Europe, and transformed into premium bars in North America. To visualize these trade flows, we generated:

• A Sankey Diagram of bean origin vs. manufacturing country → revealing global trade relationships.
• A Treemap grouping companies by country, sized by the number of bars and colored by rating.
• A Leaderboard (Boxplot) showing company rating distributions → which brands are consistent and which fluctuate.

Prompt: Take the top 30 bean origin vs. manufacturing country pairs and plot an interactive Plotly Sankey diagram.

Prompt: Create a treemap of companies grouped by country, sized by number of bars, colored by rating.

Prompt: Visualize a leaderboard of companies: plot company rating distribution (boxplot) rather than just averages.

Finding Market Gaps & Opportunities

Not all opportunities are obvious. The below analysis highlighted market gaps where demand exists but supply is weak, or where high-potential origins are not being exploited. These insights could guide strategic sourcing decisions, new product lines, or entry into underdeveloped markets.

Prompt: What market gaps exist that can be targeted?

Summary: Insights for Strategy

Finally, we compiled a report that summarized the findings into actionable recommendations.

• Key Findings:
  • Cocoa % Preference: 70–79% bars score highest (avg 3.22), while >80% underperform.
  • Top Origins & Bean Types: Honduras (3.35), Congo (3.33), Guatemala (3.32); Criollo‐dominant types lead when ≥10 reviews.
  • Leading Producers: Amedei (3.85), Patric (3.79), Idilio (Felchlin) (3.78), with tight rating consistency.
  • Rising & Under-utilized Origins: Solomon Islands, Venezuela, Australia, Malaysia show strong early ratings on few reviews—white-space opportunities.

• Strategic Recommendations:
  • Product: Launch a 70–79% single-origin line—start with Honduran beans, then experiment with Solomon Islands or Venezuela.Positioning: Emphasize “single-origin,” artisanal quality, and Criollo/Trinitario heritage genetics.Supply Chain: Forge direct-trade partnerships in under-reviewed regions; diversify beyond crowded >80% cocoa segment.
  • Innovation: Offer limited‐edition batches of rare Criollo lines to command premium pricing and differentiate in the market..

Useful Links

• Terno AI: https://terno.ai
• Dataset link: flavors_of_cacao.csv
• Detailed analysis: https://nikita.app.terno.ai/chat/share/b875f626-d6fd-4156-9552-10dffe523613